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徐洪才博客

中国国际经济交流中心经济研究部部长,金融学教授

 
 
 

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徐洪才:中国国际经济交流中心经济研究部部长、研究员、教授。1996年获中国社科院经济学博士学位。曾任国经中心信息部部长、首都经贸大学证券期货研究中心主任、风投公司高管、证券公司高管、中央银行官员、中国石化助理工程师。独著:《变革的时代:中国与全球经济治理》《全球化背景下的中国经济》《大国金融方略:中国金融强国的战略和方向》等。主编《工资、汇率与顺差:中国经济再平衡路径选择》《投资银行学》和《期货投资学》等。研究国际经济和国际关系。

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为何中国仍未打算购买欧元区救助债券  

2012-02-03 08:46:30|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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为何中国仍未打算购买欧元区救助债券

(徐洪才,原文为英文,发表于加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚大学亚洲研究院《亚太短评》http://www.asiapacificmemo.ca/

中国仍未就投资于欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)做出任何承诺。创立这一基金是为了应急解决欧洲主权债务危机问题。官方发言人已表示,中国不会使用3.2万亿美元的外汇储备拯救其他国家,为什么要这样做呢?

国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德近期表示,中国实际上并没有关闭大门。中国援助欧洲涉及全球磋商这一复杂问题,这对IMF的治理机制及其全球政策都会产生重大影响。中国愿意在全球经济中承担“利益相关者责任”,但是欧洲国家和IMF必须向中国和其他想投资的国家提供一个可信赖的投资机制。

就中国而言,解决欧洲债务危机需要具备三大关键要素。第一,欧洲中央银行(ECB)必须担任最后贷款人角色。然而,出于对道德风险和通货膨胀的担忧,德国一直反对ECB这样做,并且拖延这一进程。

第二,欧洲领导人必须使得EFSF对外部投资人具有可操作性和安全性。EFSF实际上是一个由欧盟(EU)成员国担保的临时性分担风险机制,其性质与联合发债相似,并且通过承担有限责任有效隔离风险。但是,目前EFSF面临三大挑战:标准普尔公司继下调法国主权信用评级之后,将EFSF信用级别由AAA下调到了AA+;德国不愿意增加救助金额;EFSF缺乏操作细节。

第三,欧洲国家和IMF必须设计一个可信赖的机制和通道让中国等能够发挥作用。面对EFSF现有的不确定性,中国表示倾向于通过IMF来间接帮助欧洲。但是,迄今为止,没有人就中方建议做出正式回应。原因可能是这一问题涉及到IMF治理机制、大国之间协调和份额改革问题。眼下IMF僵化的治理机制和关键国家享有特权都限制了这一进程。

总之,现在谈论中国投资EFSF可能为时尚早,困境中的国家首先要调整自身产业结构、努力实现财政收支平衡。但在短期里,ECB恐怕要担任更加积极的角色。

Why China isn’t buying Eurozone bailout bonds (yet)

 

China has still not committed to invest in the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the stopgap fund created to tackle the European sovereign debt crisis. Officials have actually stated that China will not use its $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to rescue other countries. Why is this so?

As hinted at by Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, in recent days, China has actually not closed the door either. Rather, the issue of China’s involvement in the Eurozone’s bailout is at the center of complex global negotiations that will have an important impact on IMF governance and global politics. And while China is willing to be a “responsible stakeholder” in the global economy, European countries and the IMF must offer a credible investment mechanism to China (and other would-be investors).

For China, a solution to the crisis requires three key ingredients. First, the European Central Bank (ECB) must play the leading role as the lender of last resort. Yet, due to concerns about moral hazard and inflation, Germany has opposed such a role and slowed the process.

Second, European leaders must make EFSF operational and safe for outside investors. The EFSF is in effect a temporary risk-sharing mechanism guaranteed by EU members. It is similar to jointly issued bonds and isolates risks more effectively by limiting liability. But the EFSF faces three major challenges: a downgrade by Standard & Poor’s from AAA to AA+ following the French sovereign downgrade; German resistance to an increase in its amount; and a lack of operational details.

Third, European countries and the IMF must design a credible mechanism to channel contributions by countries such as China. Facing the uncertainty presented by the EFSF, China’s leaders have indicated their preference to help Europe through the IMF. Yet, so far, nobody has given a formal reply to the China’s proposal. The reason could be that this issue relates to IMF’s corporate governance, coordination among leading countries, and quotas reform. The rigidities within IMF governance and the preferences of key countries are constraining this process.

In conclusion, it is likely too early to talk about China's investment in EFSF. Firstly, the troubled countries could adjust their industrial structure and make more efforts to achieve fiscal balance. Nevertheless, in the short run, the ECB would have to play a more active role.

(Xu Hongcai is a Visiting Scholar at the Institute and Professor in Finance and Deputy Director of the Information Department of China Center for International Economic Exchanges)

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